Quick answers to the most common Polymarket trading questions. Each answer links to a detailed guide for deeper learning.
Polymarket is a prediction market where you trade on real-world event outcomes. You buy YES or NO shares priced $0.01-$0.99. If your prediction is correct, each share pays $1.00. The share price reflects the market's probability estimate. Full guide →
You profit by buying shares at a low price and either selling at a higher price or holding until resolution pays $1.00. Strategies include arbitrage, news trading, market making, and contrarian betting. See all strategies →
The lowest-risk strategies are complement arbitrage (buying YES + NO for less than $1.00) and cross-platform arbitrage. These offer guaranteed or near-guaranteed returns but require speed and capital. Learn arbitrage →
You can start with as little as $20-$50 to learn. For serious trading, $1,000-$5,000 is recommended. Market making requires $5,000+. Never trade with money you cannot afford to lose.
Polymarket charges taker fees up to ~1.56% (varies by share price). Maker orders can earn rebates. There are no deposit or withdrawal fees from Polymarket itself. Fee details →
Polymarket is available globally but restricted for US residents. It operates on the Polygon blockchain and is registered in the Cayman Islands. Check your local regulations before trading.
If the same event is priced differently on Polymarket and Kalshi, you buy the cheaper side on one platform and the opposite on the other. One position always wins, guaranteeing profit if the price gap exceeds fees. Cross-platform guide →
It can be. Because Polymarket is on-chain, all trades are public. You can track consistently profitable wallets and mirror their positions. However, you will always get worse prices than the whale. Whale tracking guide →
Complement arbitrage: $200-$1,000 minimum. Cross-platform arbitrage: $1,000+ per platform (need funded accounts on 2+ platforms). Returns scale linearly with capital.
Binary outcomes (you can lose 100% of a position), event resolution disputes, platform risk, USDC depeg risk, and regulatory uncertainty. Unlike stocks, prediction markets have no dividends, no earnings growth, and positions expire.
Yes. Traders use AI models (Claude, GPT-4) to estimate event probabilities, scan for arbitrage, and generate trade ideas. AI is most useful for processing large amounts of information quickly, especially for news trading.
The Kelly Criterion is a formula that tells you the optimal bet size based on your edge. Kelly % = (p*b - q) / b. Most traders use quarter-Kelly or half-Kelly for safety. Bankroll guide →
Polymarket: ~1.5% max taker fee, maker rebates available. Kalshi: variable fees up to 3%. PredictIt: 10% on profits + 5% withdrawal fee. Polymarket is cheapest for active traders.
Polymarket uses UMA's decentralized oracle for resolution. Disputes go to token holder voting, which takes 48-72 hours. The system has resolved most disputes fairly, but rare edge cases exist.
Depends on your strategy. News traders sell early (capture 70-80% of the move). High-probability grind holds to resolution. Arbitrage holds to resolution. As a rule: sell early if the remaining upside is small relative to the risk.
Last updated: March 2026 · Back to all strategies