Daily Market Pulse — March 18, 2026

Our Take

The dominant narrative across today's headlines is escalating tensions between the US and Iran, with key figures being targeted and military deployments underway. These stories connect to each other in a broader geopolitical context, where the market is pricing in increased uncertainty and risk. However, the market's muted response, with the S&P up only 0.25%, suggests that traders are not yet convinced of a full-blown conflict. The Energy sector is benefiting from the news, while Financials are suffering, with the VIX at 22.4 indicating elevated volatility. Traders should watch for further developments in the US-Iran conflict and its impact on oil prices, which could drive the Energy sector higher. In the next 24-48 hours, a key level to watch is $60 on WTI crude, which could trigger a further rally in Energy stocks such as ExxonMobil (XOM). The contrarian angle is that despite the bearish sentiment, with 3 bearish and 5 neutral breakdowns, the market is not yet pricing in a worst-case scenario. This disconnect between sentiment and price action could lead to a relief rally if tensions ease, making Nvidia (NVDA) a potential buy on dips, given its muted response to recent news.